Whilst Bitcoin Ultra-Bulls like John McAfee and Tom Lee are still unshakable in their beliefs that their favorite cryptocurrency will storm past the year-end finish line at a record-high value, pessimistic market analysts say the signs are there that the crypto-market will struggle across the board throughout what’s left of 2018, with flagship BTC even slipping below $6,000.
As of midday today (May 26), Bitcoin’s price is up by 1.4 percent, from $7,410 to $7,550, and the overall cryptocurrency market showed a slight improvement.
While any such positive move is now met with an intake of breath and the hope that the tide is finally turning, the reality is – to mix metaphors – such figures are merely papering over the cracks. The truly worrying thing is if we are to as believe such market experts as Willy Woo and Ari Paul, things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get any better. If people are concerned that Bitcoin might be heading toward a valuation of $7,000, how will they feel when it drops below $6,000?
Bitcoin At $6,000… Or Less?
Within the realm of cryptocurrency, few voices are as real as that of Willy Woo. Woo is a respected writer (Forbes, CoinDesk), author and market researcher who is really making a name for himself discussing and analyzing cryptocurrency. Willy isn’t representing anything or anybody except himself, so when he makes speculation such as Bitcoin sinking to a valuation of $6,000, or even lower, it’s not scare tactics, it’s an honest, educated appraisal.
12 hours ago, Woo made this comment via his twitter page:
“I think we are gonna go to $5500-5700 next, I can’t see $7000 holding. Most likely we’ll balance a bit, then we’ll slide through. Long timeframes here, looking into June for rough timing of this to play out at a best guess.”
I think we are gonna go to $5500-5700 next, I can’t see $7000 holding. Most likely we’ll balance a bit, then we’ll slide through. Long timeframes here, looking into June for rough timing of this to play out at a best guess. /1 pic.twitter.com/pCN0N97vp6
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) May 26, 2018
In a similar fashion, the very knowledgeable Ari Paul – co-founder of Blocktower Capital and noted cryptocurrency investor – spoke on similar lines with this quote made yesterday, also via Twitter:
“Always a good bet for vol to mean revert, but this has been a low volume consolidation which is a much weaker setup for explosive moves than a high volume consolidation.”
Always a good bet for vol to mean revert, but this has been a low volume consolidation which is a much weaker setup for explosive moves than a high volume consolidation.
— Ari Paul (@AriDavidPaul) May 25, 2018
Tom Lee – The Eternal Optimist
With all of this doom and gloom surrounding the cryptocurrency market, as least we still have Tom Lee of Fundstrat fighting the Bitcoin-boom corner. Lee forecast that Bitcoin would enjoy a 70% value increase post the 2018 Consensus Conference. Even though this clearly didn’t happen, Tom is still holding firm on his belief that Bitcoin will finish 2018 with a $25,000 valuation. In a recent interview on CNBC he said this:
“I think institutional investors have gained a lot of interest, and they haven’t really come into crypto yet because there is still some regulatory uncertainty. But that sort of ultimate allocation into crypto as an asset class is going to be a powerful reason why Bitcoin rallies.”
Lee has a valid point. Thus far, Bitcoin in particular and cryptocurrency in general have been relying on a very crypto-centric section of society to draw investors from. Even from this select market, digital currency has done incredibly well. The longer it lingers in the spotlight, the greater the chances that it will grab the attention of the more traditional, institutional investor, followed by the corporate investor. When that happens… the figures we have witnessed thus far will seem like nothing.
All cryptocurrency has to do in the meantime is stay afloat.